Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 25.610314 30.569067 36.000692 42.362190 49.577590 57.476463 66.745588
2025-07-27 18.840372 25.512391 33.527905 43.734379 56.243508 70.930722 89.323712
2025-08-03 14.875613 22.281715 31.843556 44.805282 61.603475 82.312182 109.411001
2025-08-10 11.624466 19.113330 29.432592 44.207849 64.285694 90.056266 124.999166
2025-08-17 9.566780 17.110646 28.121886 44.646476 68.010314 99.006124 142.253463
2025-08-24 7.833225 15.215718 26.605596 44.468108 70.658935 106.453704 157.678553
2025-08-31 6.187796 13.114458 24.432409 42.988589 71.191135 110.863262 169.029765
2025-09-07 5.306071 12.124303 23.819794 43.712142 74.838084 119.641849 186.598944
2025-09-14 4.304605 10.703039 22.282213 42.771275 75.833014 124.579241 198.877181
2025-09-21 3.778371 10.086967 22.020058 43.821562 79.872649 134.037067 217.866211
2025-09-28 2.956546 8.671727 20.121040 41.905032 79.044068 136.152860 226.203915
2025-10-05 2.653206 8.325145 20.155818 43.303246 83.592002 146.514371 246.969030
2025-10-12 2.302999 7.833093 19.927557 44.365456 87.912742 157.123834 269.157003
2025-10-19 2.024474 7.456082 19.892483 45.801111 92.996713 169.230610 294.209777
2025-10-26 1.759774 7.039621 19.706235 46.912511 97.558679 180.668836 318.608225
2025-11-02 1.420169 6.298970 18.689815 46.293089 99.008081 187.120531 335.458170
2025-11-09 1.201741 5.846838 18.246996 46.747920 102.363044 196.762647 357.568942
2025-11-16 0.986439 5.320780 17.536014 46.562969 104.502474 204.433181 376.747736
2025-11-23 0.753112 4.620205 16.258797 45.028624 103.992250 207.583192 388.717060
2025-11-30 0.645079 4.352470 16.049888 45.779040 107.835404 218.250095 413.159877
2025-12-07 0.501140 3.853209 15.117273 44.803223 108.251432 222.985982 427.981723
2025-12-14 0.436803 3.685746 15.089432 45.892513 112.778882 235.038711 455.227806
2025-12-21 0.314555 3.136182 13.818068 43.904655 110.992441 235.831569 463.643862